Exactly 3.8%
The question has three outcomes: Below 3.8%, Exactly 3.8%, or Above 3.8%. Exactly one outcome resolves to Yes and the other two resolve to No. The question resolves based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index news release for June 2026, currently scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The relevant value is the non-seasonally adjusted all items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) percent change over the 12 months ending June 2026, as reported to one decimal place in the official monthly CPI news release. Below 3.8% resolves to Yes if that value is below 3.8%. Exactly 3.8% resolves to Yes if that value is exactly 3.8%. Above 3.8% resolves to Yes if that value is above 3.8%. If BLS has not published the June 2026 all items CPI-U figure by August 12, 2026, or if BLS announces it will not publish the June 2026 all items CPI-U figure, the question instead resolves using the most recently published month's non-seasonally adjusted all items CPI-U 12-month percent change available at that time. If the June 2026 release occurs on a date other than the scheduled date, the rescheduled release is still used, provided the figure is published by August 12, 2026. Resolution uses the initial published value, not subsequent revisions.